内容紹介
景気循環分析の分野で大いに活躍している筆者が、過去に発表してきた景気循環に関係する論文をベースに景気判断モデルの構築、景況感の決定要因、景気の爬行性などの理論・実証研究、日本経済の実証研究、社会的共通資本の理論・実証研究の体系化についてまとめる。日本語で発表してきた論文が多いことから、それらを英語に翻訳し、その際、論文自体を改訂する形で英訳。全体は論文集的なものになるが、理論分析と日本経済の実証分析をバランスよく配した記述に改める。
目次
【Part I. The Japanese Business Cycle】
Chapter 1:The Business Cycle in Japan
Chapter 2:The Bubble Cycle and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies:
Theoretical Issues and the Japanese Experience
Chapter 3:The Japanese Economy in Retrospect: Bubble Economy, Long-Term Slump
and Recovery
Chapter 4:Macroeconomic Adjustment to the Lehman Shock in Japan
【Part II. Models of Business Forcast and Business Judgment】
Chapter 5:Models of Business Cycles Excluding Policy Effects
Chapter 6:Formation of Forcasting by Forcasting Agencies
Chapter 7: Firms’Perceptions of the Business Cycle and Their Managerial and
Financial Conditions
Chapter 8:Business Confidence Surveyed by Levels and Directions of Changes:
Are They Mutually Consistent?
【Part III. Business Cycle Analyses by Region and Country】
Chapter 9:Business Cycle Leads and Lags by Region
Chapter 10:Business Cycle Judgment by the Cumulative Prefectural Business Index(CPBI)
Chapter 11: Regional Phillips Curves and Industrial Structure
Chapter 12: Business Cycle Comovements between Japanese CI and Trade with Asia
Chapter 13: Marginal Productivity Principle and Measurement Biases in TFP
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